Top Polymarket Trader Bets Big on 50bps Fed Rate Cut Amid Shifting Expectations

A high-stakes trader on Polymarket, known as JustWakingUp, has placed a $15,000 wager predicting a 50 basis point Fed rate cut next week—a contrarian bet against the market's 91% probability pricing of a 25bps reduction. The position, already up 3%, could yield $226,000 if correct, reflecting growing speculation after weak jobs data and institutional calls from BlackRock and StanChart for aggressive easing.

Friday's dismal August jobs report catalyzed the shift, with odds for a 50bps cut jumping to 10%. The narrative gained further traction after Tuesday's record downward revision of 911,000 jobs in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' annual report. All eyes now turn to upcoming PPI and CPI prints as potential confirmation of deteriorating economic conditions.